NCSE Evolution and Climate Education Update for 2013/04/05

(by NCSE Deputy Director Glenn Branch)

Dear Friends of NCSE,

A new poll on global warming from the Pew Research Center for the
People and the Press. Plus a new report discusses acceptance of
climate change among Republicans, and NCSE's Josh Rosenau discusses
what the creationist movement reveals about the future of climate
change denial.

A NEW PEW POLL ON GLOBAL WARMING

A new poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
asked about global warming and its causes. A press release summarizes,
"The survey ... finds that 69% say there is solid evidence that the
average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few
decades. That is little changed from last October (67%), but up 12
points since October 2009. At the same time, however, the percentage
of Americans who say that global warming is a very serious problem has
slipped six points, from 39% to 33%, since last October. Current
opinions about whether global warming is a very serious problem are
similar to those in 2009 and 2010."

Asked, "From what you've read and heard, is there solid evidence that
the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past
few decades, or not?" 69% of respondents said yes, 27% said no, 1%
said that the evidence was mixed, and 4% said that they didn't know or
refused to answer the question. The Pew Research Center asked the same
question at intervals from June 2006 onward; acceptance of global
warming was at its highest in July 2006, with 79% of respondents
answering that there is solid evidence for it, and at its lowest in
February/March 2011, with 58% answering that there is solid evidence
for it.

Of the 69% who said yes, 42% agreed that the warming was mostly
because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels, 23% agreed
that it was mostly because of natural patterns in the earth's
environment, and 4% said that they didn't know or refused to answer
the question. The Pew Research Center asked the same question at
intervals from June 2006 onward; acceptance of the human cause of
global warming was at its highest in July 2006, with 50% of
respondents attributing global warming mostly to human activity, and
at its lowest in October 2010, with 34% attributing global warming
mostly to human activity.

Asked, "In your view, is global warming a very serious problem,
somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?" 33% of
respondents said that it was very serious, 32% said that it is
somewhat serious, 13% said that it not too serious, 20% said that it
not a problem, and 2% said that they didn't know or refused to answer
the question. In past polls, the greatest percentage of respondents
regarding global warming as a very serious problem was 47%, in
April/May 2009, and the lowest percentage was 32%, in October 2010. A
majority of respondents have always regarded global warming as
somewhat or very serious.

The press release commented, "There has been a sizable partisan gap in
views about whether there is solid evidence of global warming since
the Pew Research Center began asking this question in 2006. In the
current survey, almost twice as many Democrats (87%) as Republicans
(44%) say there is solid evidence that the average temperature on
earth has been rising. Further, Democrats are three times as likely as
Republicans to say that human activity is mostly causing global
warming (57% vs. 19%)." There was a similar gap with regard to the
seriousness of global warming: 48% of Democrats regarded it as very
serious but only 19% of Republicans agreed.

According to the Pew Research Center, "The analysis in this report is
based on telephone interviews conducted March 13-17, 2013, among a
national sample of 1,501 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (750 respondents were
interviewed on a landline telephone, and 751 were interviewed on a
cell phone, including 385 who had no landline telephone). The survey
was conducted by Abt SRBI." The sample was weighted using demographic
considerations and to match current "current patterns of telephone
status and relative usage of landline and cell phones." The sample
error for the total sample was +/ 2.9%.

For the press release, visit:
http://www.people-press.org/2013/04/02/keystone-xl-pipeline-draws-broad-support/ 

For the complete report and the topline questionnaire (PDF), visit:
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/4-2-13%20Keystone%20Pipeline%20and%20Global%20Warming%20Release.pdf 
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-questionnaires/4-2-13%20topline%20for%20release.pdf 

And for NCSE's collection of polls and surveys on climate change, visit:
http://ncse.com/polls/polls-climate-change 

POLLING REPUBLICANS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

A new report from the George Mason University Center for Climate
Change Communication and the Yale Project on Climate Change
Communication suggests that a slim majority of Republicans accept that
climate change is happening. The researchers surveyed 726 adults who
recently identified themselves as Republicans or Republican-leaning
independent voters.

When presented with a definition of climate change as "the idea that
the world's average temperature has been increasing over the past 150
years, may be increasing more in the future, and that other aspects of
the world's climate may change as a result," and asked "Do you think
that climate change is happening," 52% answered yes, 26% answered no,
and 22% answered don't know.

When asked "To what degree do you agree with the Republican Party's
position on the issue of climate change?" 9% of respondents strongly
agreed, 25% moderately agreed, 34% neither agreed nor disagreed, 6%
moderately disagreed, and 4% strongly agreed. The Republican party's
position on climate change was not specified in the poll question.

The sample for the survey was drawn from adults who identified
themselves as Republicans or Republican-leaning in previous Climate
Change in the American Mind surveys. The average margin of sampling
error was +/- 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Demographics were weighted with data from the most recent Current
Population Survey.

For the report (PDF), visit:
http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Republican_Views_on_Climate_Change.pdf 

And for NCSE's collection of polls and surveys on climate change, visit:
http://ncse.com/polls/polls-climate-change 

WILL CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL INHERIT THE WIND?

NCSE's Josh Rosenau contributed "Will Climate Change Denial Inherit
the Wind?" to Mobilizing Ideas, the blog of the Center for the Study
of Social Movements at the University of Notre Dame. "The persistence
of the creationist movement is a remarkable example of the power of
social movements, and provides a valuable lesson for students of other
anti-science movements," he argued. After reviewing the strategies
that have enabled creationism to flourish, he suggested, "A similar
dynamic may be forming around the science of climate change as well,
and social movement theory will play a key role in understanding that
battle -- and perhaps in sparing climate science from being doomed,
like evolution, to be used as a shibboleth for political factions."

"Just as the creationist movement's persistence grew out of its
success in linking religious identity with creationist belief, there
is a danger that climate change denial could establish itself as a
permanent feature of American politics if denialist beliefs establish
themselves as core parts of the conservative identity," Rosenau
observed, citing the shifts with regard to climate change of
nationally prominent Republican politicians through the dozen years of
the twenty-first century. But there are, he added, encouraging signs
that "the climate change denial movement may not be able to fully
merge with movement conservatism, averting the danger that climate
change denial would join creationism as a permanent feature of the
American sociopolitical landscape."

For Rosenau's essay, visit:
http://mobilizingideas.wordpress.com/2013/04/01/will-climate-change-denial-inherit-the-wind/ 

Thanks for reading. And don't forget to visit NCSE's website --
http://ncse.com -- where you can always find the latest news on 
evolution and climate education and threats to them.

-- 
Sincerely,

Glenn Branch
Deputy Director
National Center for Science Education, Inc.
420 40th Street, Suite 2
Oakland, CA 94609-2509
510-601-7203 x305
fax: 510-601-7204
800-290-6006
branch@ncse.com 
http://ncse.com 

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